2023: How Obi and Tinubu are making inroads In South South as Atiku loses grip

The presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Atiku Abubakar, may have lost grip of one of his major traditional strongholds, the South South which may open the way for both the presidential candidates of the Labour Party, Peter Obi and the All Progressives Congress, APC, Bola Tinubu.

The South South has been a traditional base of the PDP since 1999 and usually produced bloc votes. Apart from Edo State, which has oscillated between the PDP and the Action Congress/APC, all elections from the national to the local government have always been won by the PDP.

That appears to be changing with the zone beset with crisis over the stand off between the Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike and Iyorchia Ayu, the PDP National Chairman.

The crisis which has lingered since May after Atiku emerged the PDP Presidential Candidate over repeated calls for Ayu to step down as national chairman.

The crisis has polarised the party, forcing major blocs to pull out of the PDP presidential campaign council, PCC.

Wike has been reckoned to be the major and biggest financier of the party since 2015, and had vowed never to support the presidential candidate of the party until “the right thing is done.”

The right thing being Ayu must step down, he has said repeatedly.

He has removed all the billboards and campaign posters of the party’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar. All candidates in the 2023 elections have also printed their posters without the usual use of the picture of the presidential candidate.

The development has cast doubt over Atiku’s chances of victory thus reducing his grip on the zone that gave him unassailable victory over incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari in 2019.

Wike is said to have strong control of two major states in the zone apart from his state of Rivers. He’s said to be the sole financier of Cross River State PDP and doled out huge cash and dozens of campaign buses to the candidates few weeks ago when they paid him a courtesy visit in Rivers State.

The governor also enjoys popular support in Cross River State following his standoff with the state Governor Ben Ayade, who appeared to have fallen out of favour with Cross Riverians.

Various stakeholders in the state said Wike controls not only the party structure but a sizable voting population in the state.

In Edo State where the governor also fell out with his counterpart, the party is in tatters as the governor, Godwin Obaseki is facing a bitter battle with the Wike sponsored group for the sole of the party.

Apart from having top members of the party on his payroll and sponsoring the party’s activities, he too enjoys huge public support in the way he supported Obaseki against his predecessor, Adams Oshiomhole and ensured he got his reelection against all odds.

Obaseki, an incumbent, was denied a return ticket and crossed over to the PDP where he got an automatic ticket before his reelection.

The three states of Rivers, Cross River and Edo State make up about 60% of the 14, 450, 271 voters who are expected to cast their ballots in 2023.

Rivers State alone has 3,532,990 voters.

Just like the North West, South South is a must win for any candidate in the next election.

The other three states, namely Delta State, where the PDP vice presidential candidate comes from; Akwa Ibom where the Chairman of the PDP PCC comes from and has a sitting governor; and Bayelsa, where former president Goodluck Jonathan comes from are expected to go the way of the PDP but with a small margin.

Notably also is the fact that Delta and Bayelsa have been devastated by flooding, casting fresh doubts over the prospect of people still having their permanent voter cards to cast their ballot in 2019. The implication is that PDP would have been denied huge potential votes before the election began.

This development has allowed the other two major candidates, Obi and Tinubu to find inroads to the zone.

Although Obi, through his Obidient Movement, is more likely to win the majority of the votes.

Tinubu’s status as the candidate whose party is in power is also said to have the chance for a huge votes.

Apart from Rivers State where the party has no candidate for any elective position, the party has a formidable governorship candidate in Delta State and a strong structure. Ovie Imo-Agege, who is the governorship candidate, is also the Deputy Senate President. He enjoys huge support from the presidency and has been a long political ally of president Buhari.

Also, the Minister of State for Labour, Festus Keyamo, comes from Delta State. He’s playing a central role in the APC Presidential Campaign Council as one of the spokesmen.

However, because of the absence of similar structure in Edo, Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom, the APC’s chances appear weak unlike Obi’s.

Also, the APC may not have a good outing in Cross River State for the presidential election despite having a sitting governor from the party. This is due to lack of popular support for the governor and stiff opposition from even top party members in the state.

Top APC members accuse Ayade of imposition. Ranking members like former Senate Leader, Victor Ndoma-Egba only identify with the party at the center.

Similarly, former Senator and 2019 governorship candidate of the APC in the State, John Owan Enoh is locked in a bitter battle in court with Ayade. This has further polarised the party.

Ayade is also facing a likely bitter electoral battle to return to the Senate after successfully winning the struggle for the senatorial ticket for Cross River North. The governor had obtained the presidential ticket and lost out during the primaries and fought his way to take the ticket from a female candidate.

With the governor having his focus on not losing the ticket to the incumbent, Senator Jarigbe Agom, placating and mobilising the hostile public appears less of his concern.

According to one of the media aides to Ayade, Ogah Wodah, in his conversation with THE WHISTLER, “Ayade has performed well and will win. He will also win Cross River State for the APC.”

He acknowledged the threat posed by the Labour Party, but refused to concede that, “APC will lose the State. It’s not possible.”

Former aide to Wike and member of the Atiku Campaign, Sophia Nkoro, said that, “The PDP is on ground to win Rivers and the entire South South notwithstanding any anti-party activities. Anyone is free to associate or dissociate but I can assure you we are cool, we don’t expect defeat and won’t happen.”

Former Special Assistant to Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State on Youth Development, Onochie Osheokwu, who resigned a few months ago stated that “Wike’s absence spells doom for the PDP. It leaves Peter Obi to cash in and clear the votes.

“South South zone is the most informed zone when it comes to voting. Because the people are well informed, they vote based on capacity. And that’s where Obi comes in.

“So the crisis is a perfect opportunity for Obi. A victory in the zone means Obi’s chance for the presidency is higher than other candidates.”