AbdulRazaq vs Saraki: The ‘Otoge’ rematch [OPINION]

By Simon Kolawole

Have you been following recent events in Kwara state? You don’t know what you are missing. As the 2027 elections draw near, the north-central state is shaping up for another round of the unfinished heavyweight bout between Mr AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq and Dr Bukola Saraki. I can bet my laptop that both men will throw everything, including the kitchen sink, into the ring. Jabs are already being thrown here and there, and I think we will see uppercuts in the months ahead. I am not ruling out a few blows below the belt. Already, the state government has exhumed the Offa robbery case of April 2018 and Saraki is expected to be arraigned in court soon. Call it third world politics if you so wish.

The AbdulRazaqs and the Sarakis have quite a history between them. The late Alhaji AbdulGaniyu Folorunsho AbdulRazaq ( “AGF”), the first lawyer from northern Nigeria, was the foremost politician from Ilorin in the first republic. He was the legal adviser to the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC), the party that controlled federal power. In 1967, AGF was in the committee that recommended the creation of 12 states — of which Kwara was one. He became commissioner for finance. But with the politics of the second republic, the late Dr Abubakar Olusola Saraki, a major backer of the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN), became the new heavyweight from Ilorin. He was the senate leader.

Fast-forward to 1999. Dr Alimi Abdulrazaq, AGF’s eldest son, was the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), but Saraki fielded Alhaji Mohammed Lawal as the All Peoples Party (APP) candidate and he won. In 2003, AbdulRahman, Alimi’s brother, looked set to be the PDP candidate but Saraki defected to the party and Bukola, the son, got the ticket and went on to unseat Lawal. In 2011, AbdulRahman ran for governorship as the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) flagbearer and lost to Mallam AbdulFatah Ahmed, Bukola’s man. In 2015, AbdulRahman and Bukola jostled for the Kwara Central senatorial seat, but Bukola won again and became senate president.

That was the state of play until 2019 when the “Otoge” (“enough is enough”) movement displaced the Sarakis from power. Kwarans rejected Mallam Razak Atunwa, Bukola’s candidate, and voted for AbdulRazaq. It was a major political earthquake. Although Mrs Khairat Gwadabe-AbdulRazaq was a senator from 1999-2003 (and in the FCT, not Ilorin), the Sarakis had won virtually all the political battles since 1979. The age-old rivalry finally swung in favour of the AbdulRazaqs as the Otoge revolution also swept out Saraki from the senate, even as a sitting senate president. For the first time since 1979, the Sarakis no longer called the shots in Kwara politics. It made national headlines.

In 2023, Saraki tried to stage a comeback by supporting Alhaji Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi, from Kwara North, as the PDP governorship candidate, but AbdulRazaq was re-elected by a comfortable margin, polling 273,424 votes as against Abdullahi’s 155,490. Many believed Saraki was only testing the waters to gauge if his political influence still had some spark. In fairness, his candidate did not do badly given the fact that he was contesting against an incumbent. After all, Atunwa got less in 2019. Now that the 2027 elections are approaching at full speed, some serious recalibration is going on in the battle for the soul of Kwara politics by the AbdulRazaqs and the Sarakis. Please come with me.

Here is some useful background on the political settings of Kwara’s three senatorial districts. Kwara Central, where Ilorin, the capital city, is located, controls about 40 percent of the votes. Since 1999, it has produced all but one governor (Ahmed, Kwara South). Kwara North is home to the state’s minority groups such as Nupe, Bariba, Bokobaru and Fulani who feel closer to the core north than the rest of the state. Kwara South is made up purely of Yoruba subgroups such as Igbomina, Ibolo and Ekiti. While AbdulRazaq reportedly favours a candidate from Kwara North, some powerful figures in the APC are said to be supporting the “Yoruba agenda” — which means zoning to Kwara South.

Now, this is where the intrigue becomes more thrilling. If APC goes for Kwara North or South, Saraki will smell blood. The PDP can decide to field a candidate from Kwara Central and pick a running mate from North or South as a countermove, like a game of chess. This may give the APC a big fight. The ruling party could decide to field a candidate from Kwara Central again in order to neutralise Saraki, but the “Yoruba Agenda” would end up in the mud as Kwara South may revolt against APC — and that means doing anti-party. As things stand, it is the APC that has the biggest issues in its hands. My sense is that Saraki saw this opening and is already strategising to reverse “Otoge” after eight years.

Why do I think so? Saraki has been openly taking a swipe at AbdulRazaq’s stewardship. With the state at the receiving end of banditry and terrorism, Saraki’s aide, Alhaji Yusuph Olaniyonu, issued a statement that was very critical of AbdulRazaq. “It is laughable that a state governor whose people were massacred in Oke Ode waited five days before visiting the community,” Saraki was quoted as saying. Mr Bashir Adigun, AbdulRazaq’s spokesman, fired back. “Instead of offering condolences to victims of criminal attacks, Saraki has chosen to play cheap politics with human lives — a shameful display of insensitivity. Insecurity is a national scourge, not peculiar to Kwara state,” he said.

While we are at it, the Kwara government has filed a 20-count charge against Saraki and Ahmed, Saraki’s successor and former ally, over allegations of arming the robbers in the Offa bank heist. The charges were filed at the Kwara state high court, Ilorin, on April 9, 2026. The robbery — one of the most gruesome in Nigeria’s history — was carried out in four commercial banks in Offa on April 4, 2018, leading to the death of 33 people. The allegation, which Saraki has always denied, is that he and Ahmed supplied arms to the robbers. A sitting senate president and governor, with virtually unlimited access to public funds, would supply arms to rob banks — and in Offa of all places? Really?

Saraki has fired back, saying it is “dirty politics taken too far and too low”. He said the robbery was designed under the Muhammadu Buhari administration “with the connivance of some individuals from Kwara State as an instrument of blackmail to seize political power from our group in 2019… The case was investigated by the police team from the office of the Inspector General of Police. However, following the investigation, in two separate legal advice dated June 22nd, 2018, and August 23rd, 2018, the Director of Public Prosecution (DPP) in the Office of the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) stated that there was no evidence directly or indirectly linking me to the robbery incident”.

Actually, four suspects were charged to court by the state government in 2018, and they were convicted. Their appeal failed. The case is now before the Supreme Court. Saraki linked the latest development to his TV interview. He said: “Suddenly, the governor woke up after I granted my interview (where I commented on the insecurity in the state) and thought he could resurrect these baseless charges against his two predecessors.” But is there a different police report to warrant a fresh criminal charge? We don’t know yet. My interest is not in the court case, though. I have bought my popcorn ahead of the heavyweight rematch in 2027. Let’s hope it will be a “Thrilla in Kwara”.

Culled from TheCable