Group confirms bandwagon effect on NASS polls

A not-for-profit organisation under the aegis of OrderPaper Advocacy Initiative has said a vast majority of citizens who voted at the National Assembly polls across the country did so on the basis of bandwagon effect more than any other consideration.

The group noted that most votes for candidates standing for senate and house of representatives seats were cast based on the political party platform they ran on, as well as the choice of voters for the post of president.

The appeal of individual legislative candidates played the least consideration for voters in making their choices, according to the group.

This is the highlight of the consolidated report by OrderPaper following the conclusion of its observatory of the Presidential and National Assembly Elections held the same day on February 25, 2023.

An integral activity of the OrderPaper Elections Observation and Monitoring (EOM) for the 2023 polls was the use of an exit poll to ascertain the reasons citizens voted at the legislative elections.

Randomly selected voters were interviewed for the exercise conducted by 415 citizen observers deployed to 326 polling units in the 360 federal constituencies across the 36 states of the country as well as the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja..

The results of the exit poll, which was deployed immediately at the end of voting at the polling units, showed that only 32.71% of respondents who partook in the exercise made their voting choice on the appeal of the candidates. On the other hand, 61.35% of the respondents chose their candidates based on the two factors of party affiliation and choice of presidential candidates. The remaining 5.94% of respondents polled based their ballot decisions on other random factors.

The exit poll also showed that there was improved participation in the National Assembly Elections as 94% of the respondents across the country voted in both the Senate and House of Representatives Elections and not just the Presidential Polls.

The assessment also revealed that of the randomly sampled respondents across the six geo-political zones who participated in its exit polls, the North East with 95.16% recorded the highest participation in the legislative elections; while the South East recorded 89.09% participation, the lowest based on the responses from those interviewed.

The Executive Director of OrderPaper, Oke Epia, said these results clearly point to a bandwagon effect on the National Assembly elections.

He said the elections observatory has proved that citizens pay less importance to the legislative polls compared to the presidential and governorship which was a key premise of the VOTER Project being implemented with support from the United States Agency for International Development and technical guidance by Palladium under the Strengthening Civic Advocacy and Local Engagement project.

According to him, while there was improved participation in the legislative elections, that appetite appeared not to have been appropriately directed to elect members of the National Assembly based on conviction that those voted for possess the capacity, competence and track record to deliver services in office but rather on extraneous influences and considerations.

He said, “And for us at OrderPaper, this has always been the bane of the legislature which continues to suffer deficiencies in being unable to hold the president, his appointees and bureaucrats to account in terms of vibrant oversight; providing the needed support to a competent executive arm of government in terms of lawmaking; and offering productive representation to constituents which are the core functions of the parliament and members of parliament.

“It is our hope that this finding on the bandwagon effect will raise the much needed awareness and sensitization among stakeholders in the democratic project and attract more attention to the legislature before, during and post-elections to facilitate improved service delivery by this most critical arm of government.”