Jonathan and the return of speculations [OPINION]

By Simon Kolawole

Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi state set the ball rolling weeks ago. Addressing a group of supporters asking him to join the 2027 presidential race, the PDP governor said he would prefer ex-President Goodluck Jonathan to go for it. “I know there are good leaders within the PDP, especially my boss Goodluck Jonathan,” he told them. “I have always said that as long as Jonathan is around, I will not present myself for leadership of this country, unless he decides not to run. If we can persuade him to [run], I will support him with my blood. Out of modesty, he is still not ready. I hope you will meet him and encourage him. He will do a better job because he has the experience.”

He went on to eulogise the former president, who lost his bid for a second term in 2015 to an amalgam of opposition parties and PDP rebels — the first and only incumbent occupier of the Presidential Villa to lose a re-election quest in our history. “During Jonathan’s regime, he was inclusive, addressing issues like the Almajiri system and creating initiatives for unemployed youths. His leadership recruitment was exemplary. We need leaders like him – young people with energy, foresight, and drive,” Mohammed, who was FCT minister under Jonathan, said — before going ahead to take a swipe at President Bola Tinubu over the rising cost of living which recently let to protests.

It turned out Mohammed was not flying a kite. As I understand, there are ongoing moves to promote Jonathan’s candidature in 2027 and it is being marketed to key political figures across the country. Jonathan was president of Nigeria from 2010 and 2015 — first serving out the unspent term of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, who had died in office after a prolonged illness, and then getting his own term in 2011. Jonathan presided for five years during the “decade of prosperity” — a period covering 2004-2014 when there was a massive inflow of petrodollars as a result of high prices and huge exports. The GDP also grew at an impressive rate and the national currency was fairly stable.

Electorally, the major marketing point for Jonathan is that, by law, he can do only one more term of four years. For northerners who desire power back in the region by 2031, that is a good bait. For southerners, it will maintain the north/south rotation balance. However, this is not the first time this one-term argument is being pushed. Ahead of the 2023 presidential election, there were speculations that Jonathan was favoured to return by some of President Muhammadu Buhari’s men because of the one-term sweetener. A group even paid N100 million to buy the APC nomination form for Jonathan, but he distanced himself from it. He was not even known to be a member of the APC.

Down south, Jonathan is not expected to have strong opposition from his south-south geo-political zone. He was quite popular in the south-south and south-east when he was in office. Although he won in the south-west in 2011, the APC forces in the zone were stronger in 2015 and helped to oust him. If he runs in 2027, therefore, he will be expected to command the votes in the south-south and — assuming Peter Obi does not run again — the south-east. Northern Christians have always been comfortable with Jonathan and should not have any problem backing him. In 2023, Obi was their choice in Jonathan’s absence. Jonathan will now need the core north to balance the equation.

The central calculation, from what I am told, is that Jonathan will be home and dry if he (1) gets the backing of core northern figures — some of whom cannot imagine another four years of Tinubu after what they had experienced in the last one year (2) re-enacts his affinity with northern Christians (3) maintains his standing in the south-south and, possibly, the south-east. The combination of these “ifs” is based on the assumption that Tinubu’s support is now limited to a narrow section of the country. Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election largely on northern votes. He was second best to Obi in the south and even lost in Lagos state, his home, and Osun state — both in the south-west.

This permutation begs the question: is Jonathan what Nigeria needs in 2027? There were three major issues that the opposition used to oust him and his party in 2015: corruption, insecurity and the economy. The sleazy details coming out of the NNPC, the abduction of Chibok schoolgirls, the audacity of Boko Haram, the falling value of the naira and the rising cost of living were hammered upon by the APC to make re-electing Jonathan look like a suicide attempt. Defeating a sitting Nigerian president was thought to be impossible but he was so damaged it finally happened. The picture painted to Nigerians by the APC was that Nigeria was about to witness transformational change.

Today, it is increasingly looking like the case of someone not knowing the value of their first spouse until they have a second one. Jonathan’s government now looks like learners in the art and science of corruption as the EFCC and ICPC continue to unearth the monumental graft in the APC era. It appears to be multiplying every day — with looting now being discussed in trillions of naira, compared to billions in times past. Although this is no consolation, we used to steal oil revenue but with the scarcity of petrodollars, we resorted to looting the money we do not have. Insecurity has multiplied and added banditry and kidnapping to its dubious portfolio. Let us not even discuss the economy.

To be clear, I have never believed one Nigerian party is better than the other. I have said it, again and again, that APC and PDP are the same. I have never bought the argument that one party has more competence than the other, especially in a polity where people defect for fun. For instance, the current APC chairman was a member of the PDP. The notion that you suddenly become patriotic and competent because you swapped your logo has never appealed to me. I know it can be strongly argued that most of the security and economic challenges were inherited from the PDP, but it can also be counter-argued that in trying to fix the situation, the APC has further worsened matters.

Increasingly, there seems to be a wave of nostalgia about the Jonathan era: his supporters still point to his “competent” economic team, “inclusive” appointments (not just regional or religious balance but gender equity as well) and “respect” for the rule of law as things they have missed since he left office. Indeed, there is real bitterness among many of his supporters that he was hounded out of power because he was an ethnic minority. This is quite interesting because his opponents believed he was the “most clueless president ever” and ran the “most incompetent administration” in Nigeria’s history when they were campaigning against him in the 2015 elections. How times change!

If Jonathan indeed wants to return, he has many rivers to cross. One, there is a constitutional question. An amendment to the 1999 constitution, done in 2017, states in section 137(3) that a “person who was sworn in as President to complete the term for which another person was elected as President shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term”. Jonathan was sworn in to complete Yar’Adua’s term in 2010, then elected the following year. An ordinary interpretation means he is disqualified. However, since he was elected before the amendment, can a new provision take retroactive effect? Expect a legal challenge, although judicial precedents appear to favour him.

Two, Jonathan should not expect an easy ride in the PDP. The party is not in the best of places. The elephant in the room is Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who clearly wants to have a go at the presidential race again in 2027. He flew the PDP flag in 2019 and 2023 and seems to have mastered how to get the party’s ticket. That is a big obstacle to Jonathan, who defeated Atiku to the party’s ticket in 2011. Atiku left for the APC in 2015 but came third in the presidential primary behind Buhari and Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Meanwhile, Chief Nyesom Wike, who apparently worked for Tinubu in the 2023 election, is still very much influential on the PDP hierarchy. The PDP is, simply put, all over the place.

Three, Jonathan could be up against Tinubu, the incumbent president, if both decide to run. I think Tinubu will bid for a second term. I don’t know of any president that willingly gives up the right to go for a second term, apart from President Nelson Mandela of South Africa who declined the opportunity in 1999 because he never intended to do more than one term. Most recently, President Joe Biden was practically forced to give up his second term bid. Tinubu is not a politician you underrate in a fight. He will do anything and everything to retain power. But, as we saw in 2015 — ironically with Jonathan — it is harder to stay put if the biggest forces are aligned against you.

Overall, what do I think about the Jonathan Project? Good question. My position is that it is well within his rights to run, but the day is still young. It is too early to discuss 2027. Politicians may disagree with me but my experience of Nigerian politics is that the presidential race does not start this early. What we can have, at best, is permutation or speculation. Luckily, Nigerians were created for elections. Every new season excites us, like the English Premier League. We just love the intrigues and the tintinnabulation. We are already printing campaign posters. If this excitement is doing some good to our mental health, then let it continue. But, trust me, discussing 2027 now is a waste of spit.