The Federal Republic of APC [OPINION]

By Simon Kolawole

Is the All Progressives Congress (APC) the new MTN? Everywhere you go, it is APC. This would have been funny if not that we are discussing the state of party politics in Nigeria, where 31 out of 36 governors are now fully nestled in the ruling party. Although Senator Bala Mohammed, governor of Bauchi state, is still in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), it may be a matter of time for him to join the APC train if he is able to resolve his differences with his bitter rivals in the state chapter of the party. As things stand, all northern states, minus Bauchi, are governed by the APC. In the south, the PDP controls only Oyo, while the Labour Party and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) are in charge of Abia and Anambra respectively. The Accord Party governs Osun. The rest is under the APC.

I have a hunch of where the sympathies of Governor Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra and Alex Otti of Abia lie — which may not make good reading for the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the “opposition coalition party” as we call it. If not that Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun has some diehard enemies in the state chapter of the APC, he too would probably have been in the party today instead of the Accord that he chose. Effectively, almost every state of the federation will be under the control of — or aligned to — the ruling party by the time we hold the 2027 general election. You cannot blame the APC for becoming so big. Politics is, after all, a game of numbers. As the Yoruba would say, you cannot be angry that your blessings are multiplying. The APC is really having a ball.

I have a fair idea of why PDP governors are trooping to the APC. They are not defecting for the same reason, but the judicial decimation of the PDP is a major factor. I do not know if we recollect that in 2019, Alhaji Mukhtar Shehu Idris of the APC won the governorship election in Zamfara state, defeating PDP’s Alhaji Bello Matawalle by a score of 534,541 to 189,452. Senator Kabir Marafa’s faction in the APC approached the courts to argue that Idris was not properly nominated. The Supreme Court then declared all primaries conducted by Idris’ faction null and void and cancelled the results of all APC candidates in the state, from the house of assembly to the national assembly. That was how all PDP candidates were declared winners, and Matawalle became the state governor.

Today, with the help of Chief Nyesom Wike, the PDP has been extensively cannibalised and it is becoming glaring to most governors who the courts will eventually support. What any governor does not want is to be nominated as PDP’s flag bearer and go on to win the election only to get the Zamfara treatment. It is already happening. In many states, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has refused to recognise the nominees of some parties, including the PDP. On Monday, the appeal court in Abuja stopped INEC from recognising the Kabiru Turaki faction of the PDP. On Thursday, the appeal court in Akure recognised the PDP governorship candidate in Ekiti based on the primary conducted by the same Turaki faction. What else is the meaning of confusion?

But if incumbent governors who want to seek re-election — such as Governor Dauda Lawal of Zamfara — are flocking to the APC, what about those who have no other term to seek — like Governor Adamu Fintiri of Adamawa? At least, they have nothing to lose. Well, that would be a naïve reading. Every governor wants to install a successor, so the Zamfara treatment can still apply. Also, not many governors want to sleep in “German cell” after leaving office in 2027. Therefore, many governors and their associates are flocking to the APC not because they love the ruling party so much or believe that the party is better than theirs. It is simply a flight to safety. The way we play politics in Nigeria, especially in the last few years, it is much safer to be on the good side of the incumbency.

Meanwhile, having 31 governors does not automatically translate to winning 31 states in the presidential or governorship election. That is not how it works. We have seen states vote differently in local and national elections at the same time. We have seen states where sitting governors lose their own elections or fail to deliver to their parties in the presidential poll. It is said that all politics is local. That is the why I am not really worried about the one-party state fears. It will never work in Nigeria. After all, the PDP once controlled about 30 states. Nigeria is too diverse to be compressed into a single party. As Waziri Adio once argued, what we have is a dominant party system not a one-party state. In that case, we should expect some recalibrations during and after the 2027 elections.

As I have said, I cannot begrudge the APC for enlarging its coast. This is politics, isn’t it? In the end, I blame the politicians who do not have the stomach for the long haul. Many cannot lift a finger to fight for what they believe in. They are not ready to be in the political wilderness for one minute. They always want the easy way out. When President Bola Tinubu was in the opposition, he was ready to face the federal fire. He indeed faced the federal fire. He was the only survivor when the PDP swept the south-west in 2003. He gathered the remnants, rebuilt his machinery, and held on through thick and thin until the APC was born in 2013. It is ironic that the same APC is now cornering the political space. It is tragic that there seems to be no new Tinubu on the other side. It is what it is.

Culled from The Cable