Random thoughts on Ghanaian elections [OPINION]

By Simon Kolawole

Did you know that Nigeria and Ghana were once one country? Maybe I didn’t put that properly, but in the late 1800s, Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Cameroon and The Gambia made up the British West African Territories, later renamed British West African Settlements, and had the same military, customs and police under one colonial administration. In fact, between 1907 and 1962, they spent the same currency — the British West African pound. You will find so many similarities between Nigeria and Ghana (need I mention the jollof rice?) but, ironically, our political cultures differ. I found their December 7 general election so fascinating that I cannot escape penning my thoughts on it.

No, I was not fascinated because Mr Mahamudu Bawumia, the candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), conceded the presidential election to Mr John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) before the final result was announced. This, to be sure, is not that strange in Ghana. Several times in the past, losing candidates gracefully accepted defeat. Bawumia, who is the outgoing vice-president, has boosted his credentials ahead of the 2028 general election by not being a bitter loser. The NPP lost by the highest margin of any party since 1996. The vote difference of nearly 1.7 million is huge. The NDC now has double the seats of the NPP in parliament — another record from 1996.

Conceding the presidential election is a rare commodity in Nigeria. It has happened only once in our history — in 2015 when President Goodluck Jonathan called and congratulated President Muhammadu Buhari. Some said it was no big deal, but we have been holding presidential elections since 1979 and no other losing candidate has accepted defeat till date. Let me modify that. In 1993, Alhaji Bashir Tofa “congratulated” Bashorun MKO Abiola before the announcement of the final result. It turned out both candidates had agreed to prepare congratulatory statements but Tofa’s message was mischievously leaked in the heat of the annulment politics. He swiftly denied the statement.

I somehow find it fascinating that since 1996, Ghanaians hold their general election on December 7 every four years — and it doesn’t matter what day of the week it falls. It could be a Friday or a Sunday. In Nigeria, our elections must hold on Saturdays, otherwise there will be war. An attempt by the electoral commission to fix the 2003 elections during the Easter weekend was met with staunch opposition, and there is enough caution to not let the voting day “clash” with Ramadan. By the way, there is no movement restriction on election days in Ghana. The economy is not locked down. But we don’t believe an election can hold in Nigeria without a curfew. We are a special breed, aren’t we?

The most fascinating thing about Ghanaian elections for me is the tradition of ruling parties losing the general election. It is almost like it is programmed. It is becoming like the US where the Democrats and Republicans frequently alternate power. A part of me sees this as evidence of political maturity. Another part says something else and I will discuss that shortly. But, by and large, Ghanaians have devised their own “power rotation” (as a senior friend puts it) between the two biggest parties — the NDC and NPP. In Nigeria, it took the opposition 16 years to unseat the ruling party. Many fans and enthusiasts of democracy would prefer this to happen more frequently.

This tradition, or culture, took off on a rough note in 1992. Flight Lt JJ Rawlings had overthrown a military government in June 1979, installed a democratically elected administration in September of the same year, and overthrown the civilian government in 1981. He went on to rule Ghana as a military dictator for 11 years before finally bowing to the campaign for democracy in 1992. He founded the NDC, transmuted to a civilian president and ruled for two terms of four years each — the constitutional term-limit. Credit to him for putting a limit: most African military dictators simply transmute to “democratically elected” leaders and immediately begin a journey into life presidency.

The 1992 elections did not really go down well with the opposition. Rawlings was the candidate of the Progressive Alliance, which was made up of his NDC, National Convention Party (NCP) and the hilariously named Every Ghanaian Living Everywhere (EGLE). Rawlings formed the alliance to be able to withstand the NPP at the ballot and he won 58 percent of votes, leaving NPP’s Prof Albert Adu Boahen trailing with 30 percent. Opposition candidates cried foul, accused Rawlings of electoral fraud, and boycotted the parliamentary elections in protest. But allegations of electoral fraud aside, the opposition parties were too fragmented and weak to make a dent on the Rawlings-led coalition.

In 1996, Rawlings easily retained power: as the incumbent and Ghanaian leader for 15 years non-stop, that was not something to be unexpected. Even though his coalition — the Progressive Alliance — was re-elected with almost the same margin in the 1992 election, the opposition parties were collaborating better. Mr John Kufuor’s Great Alliance, made up of his NPP, and ironically, the same NCP that aligned with the NDC in 1992, put up a brave fight but lost. Mr Kow Nkensen Arkaah, the vice-president, was the leader of the NCP but having fallen out with Rawlings, he decided to run with Kufuor. The opposition parties complained less this time: they admitted they had more work to do.

The 2000 election was a different ball game. The opposition parties were better organised, better resourced and better prepared this time. Kufuor ran again, this time against NDC’s Prof John Atta Mills, Rawlings’ VP who replaced Arkaah. Contrary to fears of violence, the election went peacefully and NPP defeated the ruling party and a sitting vice-president after two rounds of voting. Rawlings lost power, in a sense, after having ruled Ghana for 19 years on the trot. The NDC was displaced from power after just two terms by the man who had lost to Rawlings four years earlier. This was considered the ultimate model of civilian-to-civilian transition in developing democracies.

Kufuor got his second term in 2004 by defeating Mills again, this time without a run-off. But Kufuor’s NPP lost power in 2008 as Ghanaians decided to show the ruling party the red card — the second time in 16 years. And it was third time lucky for Mills, who defeated NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo, the former attorney-general and minister of justice. Mills needed a run-off to win the closest election in Ghanaian history. Akufo-Addo led the first round with 49.13 percent while Mills had 47.92 per cent. But having not scored the required half of the total votes, Akufo-Addo faced a tension-soaked run-off that ended with less than one percent margin in favour of Mills, the law professor-turned-politician.

The next three elections were something you could never make up: Akufo-Addo vs Mahama all the way. Mahama was vice-president to Mills, who died a few months to the 2012 elections. Mahama was sworn in to replace Mills as required by the constitution. He then had a go at presidency. He defeated Akufo-Addo, who was now losing for the second time in a row. But both of them squared off again in 2016 and Akufo-Addo finally won — at third try. That was the third time a ruling party would be sent packing. Akufo-Addo defeated Mahama again in 2020. Now, Mahama has defeated Akufo-Addo’s vice-president to return to power. And this is the fourth time a ruling party would lose.

Meanwhile, why is another part of me feeling uneasy with this Ghana “power rotation”? I would say that sometimes voters judge wrongly by blaming all the economic misery on the ruling party. The fundamentals of many African economies are not right and changing governments hardly solves the major problems. If the structure of the economy is warped, implementing major changes can hurt the citizens who will now take it out on the ruling party and vote them out. But years down the line, they will look back and say “even the previous government was not this bad”. They choose another party again but the problems remain. This is good for democracy but it can equally be very tricky.

Let me illustrate. When Ghanaians voted out Mahama in 2016, the national currency had fallen to an average of GH¢4 to the dollar. Voters were angry because it was GH¢1.95/$ when Mahama became caretaker president in 2012. They voted him out in favour of Akufo-Addo but things only got worse (it is now GH¢16/$ with the attendant impact on the cost of living). Voters were angry again and began to yearn for a return to the “good old days” when NDC was in power. Well, NDC is back but if the economic fundamentals do not change (and reform can come with more pains), it could be GH¢30/$ by 2028 when another election is due. And voters would again long for the “good old days” of NPP.

For me, though, the major positive in the unofficial “power rotation” is that people own the democracy. It belongs to all. It is in the interest of everyone that the democratic order is maintained. The opposition parties have a stake. The voters have a stake. Part of the frustration with our democracy in Nigeria is the notion that you have to be in the ruling party to win. This has led to a culture of defections to the ruling party and the weakening of opposition and competition. It is almost like you are wasting your time being in the opposition. Some PDP members have not forgiven Jonathan for conceding to Buhari in 2015 and failing to use state machinery to hold tight to power.

Democracy is sweeter when the field is level and participants are given a fair crack of the whip. When people go into elections already feeling defeated, the competitive feature of democracy is in ruins. A level-playing field allows for promotion of alternative ideas. The possibility that a ruling party can lose an election should also, ordinarily, propel incumbents to deliver the goods. It should serve as an incentive for performance in order to retain power. It has the potential to curtail complacency. At a time in Nigeria, to get the PDP ticket was the most critical thing. Winning the actual election was a mere formality. The APC has now fully replaced the PDP in this aspect of the game. It is what it is.

Culled from TheCable